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What is the expectations of Analyst for the Q4 FY25 (quarter ended March 31, 2025) earnings of HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank?




Analyst expectations for the Q4 FY25 (quarter ended March 31, 2025) earnings of HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, based on recent analyst reports. Both banks are scheduled to announce their results on Saturday, April 19, 2025.  

HDFC Bank Q4 FY25 Expectations:

Analysts generally expect HDFC Bank to report moderate growth, with continued focus on managing margins and the loan-to-deposit ratio post-merger.

  1. Net Profit (PAT): Expected to show modest year-on-year (YoY) growth, likely in the range of 2% to 7%. Sequentially (QoQ), profit is expected to be flat or show low single-digit growth. Estimates from various brokerages place the PAT around the ₹16,900 crore to ₹17,600 crore mark.
    • Key Driver: Lower provisions compared to the previous year are expected to support profit growth.  
  2. Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to grow moderately YoY, with most estimates falling between 5.5% and 9%. QoQ growth is anticipated to be lower, around 1-3%. Some analysts see NII around ₹31,000 crore to ₹31,600 crore.
  3. Net Interest Margin (NIM): Likely to remain under pressure or stay broadly flat compared to the previous quarter (Q3 FY25), potentially around 3.4% to 3.5%. Efforts to manage the liability mix and reduce high-cost borrowings are key focus areas.
  4. Loan & Deposit Growth: Based on provisional figures, loans grew around 5.4% YoY and 4% QoQ, while deposits saw stronger growth at 14.1% YoY and 5.9% QoQ. Analysts expect continued focus on deposit mobilization to improve the Credit-Deposit Ratio (CDR).
  5. Asset Quality: Expected to remain stable or show slight improvement. Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) are likely to be steady around 1.4%, with potential minor improvement in Net NPAs (NNPA). Slippages are expected to be contained.  
  6. Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP): Expected to decline significantly YoY (around 11-14%) due to base effects and potentially lower other income, but may show a slight improvement QoQ (around 1-4%).
  7. Key Monitorables: Management commentary on NIM trajectory, guidance on loan and deposit growth, strategy for reducing the CDR, and updates on meeting Priority Sector Lending (PSL) requirements.  

ICICI Bank Q4 FY25 Expectations:

Experts anticipate another strong quarter for ICICI Bank, driven by robust business growth and healthy asset quality, although margins might face some pressure.  

  1. Net Profit (PAT): Expected to report strong double-digit YoY growth, with estimates ranging from 8% to as high as 15%. QoQ growth is likely to be flat or show a marginal increase. Profit figures are projected in the range of ₹11,600 crore to ₹12,300 crore.
  2. Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to grow healthily YoY, likely between 7.5% and 11%. QoQ growth is expected to be modest, around 1-4%. NII estimates range from roughly ₹20,500 crore to ₹21,200 crore.
  3. Net Interest Margin (NIM): Expectations are somewhat mixed, but the consensus leans towards NIM being broadly stable or slightly lower sequentially (QoQ), potentially around 4.2-4.3%. Most analysts expect a YoY contraction due to lagged deposit repricing and potential impact from recent policy rate cuts, though some sources mention potential modest expansion QoQ supported by CRR cuts or asset mix changes.
  4. Loan & Deposit Growth: Robust loan growth is expected, around 14-15% YoY and 3% QoQ, driven by retail, MSME, and corporate segments. Deposit growth is also expected to be strong, potentially around 11-14% YoY and 3-4% QoQ.
  5. Asset Quality: Expected to see further improvement. Slippages are likely to moderate compared to the previous quarter, partly due to seasonality and recovery in specific portfolios like KCC. GNPA and NNPA ratios are expected to decline further. Credit costs are likely to remain low.
  6. Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP): Anticipated to show strong YoY growth, in the range of 10% to 18%, supported by NII growth and potentially higher treasury gains. QoQ growth is expected to be flat or show low single-digit improvement.
  7. Key Monitorables: Outlook on NIMs especially considering recent rate cuts, sustainability of loan and deposit growth momentum, commentary on asset quality trends (slippages and provisions).

In summary, ICICI Bank is expected to report stronger growth figures compared to HDFC Bank for Q4 FY25, primarily driven by robust loan growth and stable asset quality. HDFC Bank's performance is expected to be steady but moderated by ongoing post-merger adjustments and margin management.

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